# Trans Mountain settlement changes the contracting boundary, not pipeline capacity

> The September approval raises the permitted contracted share from 80% to 90%, requiring oil-netback comparisons to distinguish access from physical throughput.

- **Source date:** 2026-10-09
- **Original source:** [Canada Energy Regulator](https://www.canada.ca/en/canada-energy-regulator/news/2026/09/cer-approves-trans-mountain-settlement-establishing-a-new-framework-for-tolls.html)
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## What the primary source establishes

On 28 September 2026, the Canada Energy Regulator announced approval of Trans Mountain’s negotiated tolls settlement. The permitted contracted capacity share rises from 80% to 90%. The system’s nominal capacity remains approximately 890,000 barrels per day following its 2024 expansion. The release establishes a commercial framework; it does not report a new October throughput record or specify a universal per-barrel toll for every shipment.

[Canada Energy Regulator](https://www.canada.ca/en/canada-energy-regulator/news/2026/09/cer-approves-trans-mountain-settlement-establishing-a-new-framework-for-tolls.html)

## How the costs connect

Our economic interpretation: greater contracted allocation can change the mix of committed access and capacity available through other arrangements. It does not create more pipe capacity or prove that every shipper’s transport cost falls. An oil producer’s netback depends on sale value, quality adjustments, pipeline toll, terminal handling and any onward freight. A distant market’s higher crude price can be offset by extra transport or a less flexible commitment.

## An explicitly illustrative calculation

As an explicitly illustrative comparison, assume a sale value of CAD 100 per barrel, a quality deduction of CAD 6 and route charges of CAD 12. Before production expenses, the resulting netback is CAD 82 per barrel. If an alternative route has the same sale value and quality but CAD 16 in route charges, it yields CAD 78. The CAD 4 difference is a constructed commercial scenario, not a reported Trans Mountain toll reduction.

## What buyers should record

Canadian shippers evaluating pipeline and rail should align destination, quality, currency and contract term before comparing netbacks. Record minimum-volume obligations and access rights separately from variable shipment charges. The approved 90% share is a permission boundary: do not assume all that capacity has already been contracted or carried. Obtain the applicable tariff or negotiated terms for the actual shipment.

Capacity rights also carry a utilization risk. A shipper comparing pipeline and rail should examine minimum-volume commitments, reservation charges, nomination rules and the value of flexibility when production or destination changes. An attractive per-barrel charge can become expensive if fixed payments are spread over fewer barrels than planned. Compare the full contractual cash flow with expected shipped volumes and alternative routes before treating additional access to contracted capacity as a guaranteed reduction in transport cost.

[Canadian oil netbacks and pipeline–rail economics](/articles/canada-oil-netback-pipeline-rail-economics-2026)

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