# Montney productivity update separates Canadian gas supply growth from delivered power costs

> The regulator’s September analysis connects historical well performance with conditional long-term gas scenarios, rather than an October price forecast.

- **Source date:** 2026-10-09
- **Original source:** [Canada Energy Regulator](https://cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2026/market-snapshot-montney-well-performance-continues-to-improve-update-on-production-trends-in-canadas-dominant-natural-gas-formation.html)
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## What the primary source establishes

The Canada Energy Regulator’s 23 September 2026 snapshot identifies Montney tight-gas production at 8.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2024, about 45% of Canada’s 18.3 billion. Its Current Measures scenario reaches 15.3 of 24.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2035, about 63%. The first comparison is historical; the second is a modelled scenario dependent on gas prices and LNG demand.

[Canada Energy Regulator](https://cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2026/market-snapshot-montney-well-performance-continues-to-improve-update-on-production-trends-in-canadas-dominant-natural-gas-formation.html)

## How the costs connect

Our economic interpretation: improved wells can spread drilling and completion expenditure over more produced gas, but greater initial flow is not the same as lower lifetime cost. Decline rates, liquids revenue, gathering, processing and pipeline access also matter. A Canadian gas producer’s cost boundary ends differently from a power station’s delivered-fuel boundary. Additional supply therefore cannot be translated directly into an electricity-price reduction or a guaranteed export volume.

## An explicitly illustrative calculation

An explicitly illustrative producer comparison holds annual fixed operating cost at CAD 1,000,000. At 100,000 gigajoules of annual sales, fixed cost is CAD 10/GJ; at 125,000 gigajoules it is CAD 8/GJ. The CAD 2/GJ reduction describes only that assumed cost allocation. It excludes completion capital, variable processing costs, decline and selling-price changes; it is neither a reported Montney result nor a forecast of a gas contract.

## What buyers should record

Before revising a Canadian gas-fired project budget, request the delivered gas price, transport entitlement and heat-rate assumption. Keep historical productivity evidence apart from future production shares. Match pipeline delivery rights to the site’s dispatch needs: even an expanding basin does not prove that firm supply is available at a particular connection during a constrained period.

Completion procurement should be assessed against the gas it can economically deliver over the well’s life. More proppant, pumping services or completion equipment can increase the upfront bill while a stronger productive profile spreads that bill over more saleable gas. The comparison requires decline curves, operating costs and realized prices, rather than initial flow alone. Procurement savings that reduce well performance may therefore raise lifetime unit cost even when the completion invoice falls.

[US–Canada gas and power price transmission](/articles/us-canada-gas-power-price-transmission-2026)

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