Wind Capture Price: Congestion, Export Losses and Revenue

AI-generated editorial illustration; it does not depict a verified project, actual prices or chart data.

1. Economic decision

Wind profitability depends on the price when wind actually exports. The arithmetic average market price weights quiet and windy hours equally; capture price weights each hour by delivered MWh. Congestion may remove volume while also changing which hours remain. Treating every lost MWh at the annual average conceals this interaction. A low-cost turbine at a weak node can earn less than a more expensive turbine at a strong connection.

2. Evidence and dates

World Bank TTF observations rise from 21.11 USD/MMBtu in August to 25.42 in September 2026; they describe gas, not a wind node. The October 6 EIA outlook, with October 1 cutoff, forecasts annual US wholesale power at 52 USD/MWh for 2026. Neither identifies the hourly capture price of this project. IRENA offers historical generation-cost comparisons, not verified August–September 2026 wind PPA offers. Obtain local hourly prices before attributing September fuel changes to wind revenue.

3. Cost boundary

The boundary is the export settlement meter, using illustrative nominal USD for one year, excluding tax, capital recovery and financing. Capture price equals sum of hourly export × hourly price divided by total export. Losses reduce physical MWh; imbalance fees and contractual discounts reduce cash separately. Do not subtract transformer losses twice if the production series already comes from the revenue meter.

4. Worked calculation

Assume 60000 MWh gross generation, 10000 MWh curtailed, then 2% export losses on the remaining 50000 MWh: delivery is 49000 MWh. At 50 USD/MWh capture price, revenue is 2450000 USD. Operating cost of 8 USD per delivered MWh is 392000 USD, leaving 2058000 USD contribution before capital. If curtailed hours would have earned only 20 USD/MWh, the direct foregone gross revenue is 200000 USD, not 500000 USD obtained from a 50 USD/MWh average.

5. Sensitivity

Keeping delivered volume and cost unchanged, capture prices of 40, 50 and 60 USD/MWh yield annual contributions of 1568000, 2058000 and 2548000 USD. A 10 USD/MWh change moves contribution by 490000 USD. Separately, reducing export losses from 2% to 1% adds 500 MWh; at 50 USD/MWh and 8 USD/MWh variable cost, contribution rises by 21000 USD. This improvement alone does not justify unlimited cable or transformer spending.

Illustrative 49000 MWh annual export, 392000 USD annual operating cost; contribution excludes capital recovery, tax and financing.

6. Contract and operating evidence

Request hourly available generation, dispatched generation, export-meter readings and node prices on the same timezone. Identify whether congestion is compensated, whether negative-price hours suspend support, and who pays imbalance and connection reinforcement. A fixed PPA price can stabilize revenue on delivered MWh while leaving curtailment and volume risk with the generator. Check the measurement point before accepting a loss allowance.

Capture correlation must be measured before assigning blame to congestion. If every generator produces during the same low-price hours, a low capture price may persist even without an export constraint. Compare available-generation-weighted prices with delivered-generation-weighted prices to isolate the hours removed by restrictions. Keep availability outages separate: a stopped turbine and a grid instruction can produce the same meter reading but have different remedies and counterparties.

7. Questions and next steps

Can annual average price replace capture price? Only when hourly weighting happens to match; verify it. Is all curtailment equally expensive? No, price and compensation vary by hour. Does more capacity always improve revenue? Not when the node is saturated in windy hours. Review the wind transformer guide and compare the distinct solar cost boundary.

8. Primary references

[1] World Bank October 2026 Pink Sheet

[2] EIA October 2026 STEO

[3] IRENA renewable costs methodology